Soft landing / continued expansion
46%
+4Growth holds while inflation continues toward target.
Market Analysis & Reporting
Before you continue
The information displayed on The Common Catalyst is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or financial product.
By continuing, you acknowledge that you are responsible for your own financial decisions and should consult a qualified professional when appropriate.
Market Analysis & Reporting
Before you continue
The information displayed on The Common Catalyst is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or financial product.
By continuing, you acknowledge that you are responsible for your own financial decisions and should consult a qualified professional when appropriate.
Probability & sentiment engine
A probabilistic reading of the global cycle, market regime, and signals driving the next move.
Current regime call
Broadening equity participation, tight credit spreads, and a softer dollar support risk assets. Rising real yields remain the clearest contradiction and limit conviction in long-duration equities and bonds.
64/100
Composite confidence 72%
Growth
Expanding
+5Inflation
Sticky
+2Liquidity
Improving
+7Stress
Low
-446%
+4Growth holds while inflation continues toward target.
28%
-2Labor and consumption data soften faster than expected.
17%
+1Services inflation and wages remain persistently elevated.
9%
-3Credit stress broadens and unemployment rises sharply.
| Market | Score | Stance | Confidence | Trend | 1D | 1W | Primary driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. equities | 68 | Bullish | High | Improving | +3 | +8 | Breadth + earnings revisions |
| Europe equities | 57 | Constructive | Med | Stable | +1 | +2 | Valuation + ECB easing |
| EM equities | 54 | Neutral+ | Low | Improving | +2 | +5 | Softer USD offsets China |
| Government bonds | 42 | Cautious | Med | Weakening | -4 | -7 | Term premium rising |
| Credit | 71 | Bullish | High | Improving | +2 | +6 | Spreads tightening |
| U.S. dollar | 43 | Bearish | Med | Weakening | -2 | -5 | Rate advantage narrowing |
| Commodities | 58 | Constructive | Low | Mixed | 0 | +3 | Metals lead energy |
| Gold | 66 | Bullish | Med | Improving | +2 | +7 | Central banks + real rates |
| Crypto | 73 | Bullish | Low | Improving | +5 | +11 | Liquidity + momentum |
| Volatility | 31 | Low vol | High | Falling | -3 | -9 | Demand for hedges fades |
Equity breadth
70% advancing
Confirms risk-on
High weight
High-yield spreads
318 bp / tightening
Confirms risk-on
High weight
Yield curve
-31 bp / steepening
Early-cycle transition
Med weight
Dollar index
104.24 / falling
Supports global liquidity
Med weight
Real yields
2.03% / rising
Challenges duration assets
High weight
Copper / gold
0.0042 / flat
Growth signal unconfirmed
Med weight
Oil curve
Backwardation easing
Supply stress receding
Low weight
VIX term structure
Contango 7.8%
Complacency risk
Med weight