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The information displayed on The Common Catalyst is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or financial product.
By continuing, you acknowledge that you are responsible for your own financial decisions and should consult a qualified professional when appropriate.
Section
Fiscal policy, laws, regulation, lobbying, and political divergence.
Before you continue
The information displayed on The Common Catalyst is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or financial product.
By continuing, you acknowledge that you are responsible for your own financial decisions and should consult a qualified professional when appropriate.
Section
Fiscal policy, laws, regulation, lobbying, and political divergence.
Politics & Government
How prediction markets are pricing the next major monetary-policy decision—and how those expectations change as new political and economic information arrives.
Probability-weighted consensus
Current target upper bound 3.75% plus each possible rate change multiplied by its Polymarket likelihood. The 50+ bp outcomes are represented as 50 bp.
Current upper bound
3.75%
As of 2026-08-22
Expected move
+7.4 bp
Prediction market
Market-implied probabilities for each possible September 2026 FOMC decision.
Current probabilities
30-day history