Model v3 uses explicit heuristic thresholds, not fitted or backtested probabilities. Component scores are clipped to 0–100 and combined by weight. Daily observations older than seven calendar days and monthly CPI observations older than 90 days are excluded; source dates can differ. Breadth and rotation each use shared weekly observation dates. Yield changes, volatility changes, breadth, rotation, and inflation are required inputs.

• Equity momentum (15%): Equal-weight weekly returns of six regional benchmarks, including the EM ETF proxy. −3% maps to 0, flat to 50, +3% to 100; at least four benchmarks required.
• Volatility (15%): Equal blend of VIX level (12 → 100; 35 → 0) and weekly change (−25% → 100; flat → 50; +25% → 0). Rising volatility lowers the score even at a low level.
• Credit conditions (10%): U.S. high-yield option-adjusted spread: 250 bp or lower maps to 100; 700 bp or higher maps to 0, linearly.
• Dollar pressure (5%): Dollar-index weekly return: −2% maps to 100, flat to 50, +2% to 0. This model treats a rising dollar as pressure on risk assets.
• Borrowing costs (15%): Weekly nominal U.S. 10Y Treasury yield change in basis points: −25 bp → 100; unchanged → 50; +25 bp → 0. A benchmark borrowing-cost proxy; falling yields can also reflect growth concerns.
• Market breadth (15%): Equal blend of participation across all 11 S&P sector ETFs (advances count 1, unchanged ½) and RSP minus SPY weekly return (−2 percentage points → 0; flat → 50; +2 → 100). A leadership-concentration proxy, not a holdings concentration measure. All 13 ETFs must share observation dates.
• Capital rotation (15%): Risk basket = average of SPY, Bitcoin weekly return divided by 3 to temper its volatility, and VNQ (listed real estate). Defensive basket = average of GLD (gold) and IEF (Treasuries). Risk minus defensive return: −3 percentage points → 0; flat → 50; +3 → 100. All five share dates. Relative price performance suggests rotation, not measured capital flows; gold and duration bonds can also lose value.
• Inflation & expectations (10%): Four equal parts: headline/core CPI annual-rate levels; their change from the prior month; 5Y/10Y breakeven levels; and their weekly change in basis points. CPI levels score 100 at a 2% reference and 0 at a 4-point deviation; breakevens use a 2-point deviation. CPI acceleration of +0.5 pp or breakeven increases of +20 bp score 0; unchanged scores 50; equivalent declines score 100. Levels penalize deflation too. The 2% reference is a heuristic, not a CPI policy target. CPI requires matching months, exact year-ago history and observation dates within 90 days; daily breakevens within seven days. Breakevens include risk and liquidity premiums, not just expected inflation.

Bands: below 25 high stress; 25–44 cautious; 45–59 mixed; 60–79 constructive; 80–100 strong conditions. Sources: Yahoo Finance and FRED. Inflation: FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL, T5YIE, T10YIE. Sector proxies: XLK, XLF, XLE, XLV, XLI, XLY, XLP, XLU, XLB, XLRE, XLC. Breadth: SPY and RSP. Rotation: SPY, GLD, BTC-USD, IEF, VNQ.